From Pocket Passers to Dual-Threats
As we delve into the exciting realm of fantasy football preparation, our focus shifts to the quarterback position, where strategic draft decisions can make or break your season. Embracing a tier-based approach, we’ve meticulously assessed this year’s starting quarterbacks, categorizing them into six distinct tiers based on their projected fantasy value. This comprehensive guide not only unveils our tiered rankings but also provides invaluable insights into each quarterback’s Average Draft Position (ADP). Get ready to embark on a journey through the 2023 quarterback landscape, gaining a deeper understanding of how these tiers can elevate your draft strategy and lead you to championship glory.
Tier 1: The Gridiron Magicians
#1 Jalen Hurts
When it comes to consistency, Jalen Hurts proved himself to be the epitome of reliability in 2022. If Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen could be considered QB1 in their own right, then Hurts certainly solidified his position as the most consistent QB of the year. He led the pack in expected fantasy points, road fantasy points per game (27), and passer rating against zone coverage. While his prowess as a passer significantly improved, it was his ground game that truly defined his fantasy success. With an impressive average of 11 rush attempts per game, 13 rushing touchdowns under his belt, and the record for the most red zone rush attempts by a QB, Hurts has indisputably established himself within the fantasy elite. For the upcoming 2023 season, he’s more than deserving of a place in the top-3 round pick conversation.
#2 Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes’ track record speaks for itself, with an MVP title, Super Bowl MVP honors, and what could easily be deemed one of the most consistent fantasy seasons for a pocket passer in recent memory. Impressively, he shattered his own record for top-12 performances in a single season, achieving an astounding 15 such outings. Even when facing the challenge of losing Tyreek Hill, Mahomes showcased his adaptability, with 34 of his 41 passing touchdowns (83%) occurring within the red zone. He fulfilled his preseason promise of spreading the ball around, with an impressive 11 different pass-catchers reeling in touchdowns. While others might waver, one thing is certain – when it’s Mahomes, you’re not betting against the magic. Opting for an elite QB like him in the third round is not just sensible; it’s a strategic move that can significantly elevate your roster’s prospects.
#3 Josh Allen
Josh Allen’s performance in 2022 speaks volumes, capturing the number one spot in points per game and leading all quarterbacks with an impressive 11 top-5 performances. His reign as QB1 in previous years only seems to be solidifying, as he consistently outpaces his own records. Even his career-high 20 turnovers couldn’t dim his shine, as he managed to average more fantasy points per game and rushing yards when throwing an interception. Allen embodies the perfect fantasy quarterback package, making him a strong contender to claim the QB1 title once again in redraft leagues. With the fantasy landscape undergoing shifts, investing in Allen early, even as early as the second round, can be an ingenious maneuver when balanced with the right roster strategy.
Tier 2: Phenoms Ready to Rock
#4 Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense underwent a significant transformation in 2022. Starting from Week 3, the Bengals surged, ranking 2nd in pass rate over expectation and 2nd in expected points per play. Despite facing challenges like an injury to Ja’Marr Chase and an inconsistent offensive line, Burrow managed to finish 2nd in passing touchdowns, 4th in fantasy points per game, and 5th in passing yards. While he lacks the rushing upside of some other QBs, Burrow’s boom performances are always just around the corner, making him a valuable asset.
#5 Lamar Jackson
The journey of Lamar Jackson continues with intrigue in the 2023 off-season. Despite a dip in his yards per attempt (6.9), his rushing ability remains a game-changer for fantasy. Running QBs often equalize the playing field, with 60+ rushing yards and a touchdown equivalent to 300 passing yards in many leagues. Armed with weapons like Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, and newcomer Zay Flowers, Jackson’s potential is undeniable. From MVP to fantasy value, he offers unpredictability and the potential to break the mold.
#6 Justin Fields
Justin Fields’ 2022 story was a roller-coaster. The Bears’ shift in approach in Week 6 ignited his performance. From then on, Fields averaged 24.8 fantasy points per game, capitalizing on his rushing prowess. He led the league in yards per carry (7.1) and QB scrambles. Matching Lamar Jackson’s 80+ rushing yards games (7), Fields proved his unique upside. With the addition of DJ Moore to the receiving corps, Fields is poised for a potential top-5 QB season, riding on his rushing and developing passing skills.
#7 Justin Herbert
Herbert’s voyage through the 2022 fantasy football season proved to be a roller-coaster of emotions. Despite etching his name in NFL annals with the 3rd most completions, his passing game remained grounded in short routes, reflected by his 31st rank in average depth of target (aDOT). Throughout the year, he managed just two top-5 QB finishes, leaving fantasy managers yearning for more. The Chargers orchestrated a change at offensive coordinator, with Kellen Moore stepping into the role, injecting renewed hope. Moore’s reputation for an expansive playbook that aligns with Herbert’s deep-throw prowess has us excited. We’re projecting Herbert to orchestrate over 35 passing touchdowns, but the absence of a gushing stream of rushing touchdowns might hinder his ascent to the QB2 echelons achieved in his stellar 2021 campaign. With stars aligning for a bounce-back, Herbert is set to become a focal point for fantasy enthusiasts this season.
Tier 3: Ready To Rise & Shine
# 8 Trevor Lawrence
Freshly liberated from Urban Meyer’s shackles, Trevor Lawrence showcased his potential with over 4,000 passing yards, 25 touchdowns through the air, and five rushing scores in his sophomore year. His second-half surge included six top-12 fantasy performances. With improved surroundings and added talent like Calvin Ridley, Lawrence has the makings of a top-8 QB with tantalizing upside. Consider him the ultimate sleeper with top-tier aspirations.
#9 Daniel Jones
Thanks to HC Brian Daboll’s guidance, Daniel Jones transformed from struggling franchise QB to a rising cornerstone. Boasting a league-low 1.1% INT rate and an 81.1% adjusted completion rate, he combined his passing prowess with ground success, averaging 44 rushing yards per game. His evolution was evident, but with only five top-10 finishes, Jones remains a mid-range QB2 despite the promising trajectory.
#10 Geno Smith
Surpassing expectations, Geno Smith delivered steady performances in 2022. With ten top-12 finishes from Week 3 onwards, he showcased efficiency with an impressive 69.8% completion rate and excelled in deep passes. While his top-5 feat may not repeat, Smith remains an intriguing late-round option. Bolstered by new weapons, he’s poised to be a collective favorite among sleeper QBs.
#11 Russell Wilson
A rollercoaster 2022 left Russell Wilson’s legacy questioned. The Broncos traded heavily for him, only to see him struggle. Nonetheless, his potential remains high, especially with Sean Payton’s coaching magic in Denver. Despite last year’s woes, Wilson ended with three top-5 finishes, hinting at a resurgence. Betting on Wilson’s rebound might just pay off as a draft-day gamble.
Tier 4: Great Spot Starters with Hidden Gems
This tier features intriguing options for spot starts. Deshaun Watson returns with a potential top-5 ceiling, though offense context limits him. Colts’ Anthony Richardson boasts playmaking ability under Shane Steichen’s guidance, but limited passing affects immediate impact. Dak Prescott, back from injury, benefits from red-zone efficiency and a balanced offense. Tua Tagovailoa’s high yards per attempt and TD rate highlight his potential, but early schedule caution is needed. Aaron Rodgers, now with the Jets, seeks a revival with upgraded weapons and past OC success. Prescott and Watson stand out as sneaky picks, aiming to regain their top-tier form and break into the top 10 QBs.
Tier 5: Upside Streamers
Tier 5 QBs offer intriguing streaming options for bye weeks and uncertain starts, warranting vigilant performance monitoring. These QBs could evolve into compelling choices as the season unfolds. Many won’t be drafted initially, so post-draft stashing is advised.
Despite a UCL elbow injury, Purdy emerges as the 49ers’ 2023 favorite, with a strong finish including six straight wins and three top-10 fantasy displays. Limited rushing relegates him to a low-end QB2. Goff excels at Ford Field, amassing 21.3 fantasy points, 274 passing yards, and 2.6 TDs per game. His red-zone proficiency aids, especially at home. Cousins, under new coach O’Connell, tops air yards and 3rd-down TDs, embracing a pass-heavy scheme. His consistency in close games and stability make him a late-round choice. Carr shifts to the Saints, offering steady but non-elite fantasy play. Despite lacking top-12 finishes, his improved arsenal could yield streamable moments in NFC South battles.
Tier 6: High Risk, Low Reward QBs with Uncertain Futures
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Matthew Stafford
#21 | LA Rams
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Jimmy Garoppolo
#22 | Las Vegas Raiders
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Kenny Pickett
#23 | Pittsburgh Stealers
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Jordan Love
#24 | Green Bay Packers
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Ryan Tannehill
#25 | Tennessee Titans
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Mac Jones
#26 | New England Patriots
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Bryce Young
#27 | Carolina Panthers
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JC.J. Stroud
#28 | Houston Texans
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Sam Howell
#29 | Washington Commanders
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Kyler Murray
#30 | Arizona Cardinals
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Baker Mayfield
#31 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Desmond Ridder
#32 | Atlanta Falcons
Tier 6 encompasses QBs unlikely to see starts in fantasy rosters this year unless luck strikes gold. Drafting or stashing is discouraged due to high risk and low reward. These veterans on decline and rookie additions are inconsistent, warranting caution. Stafford, Rams’ Super Bowl glow faded, offers aging potential. Garoppolo, now with Adams in Vegas, remains a distributor, suitable for matchups but with a limited ceiling. Pickett struggled as a rookie, Steelers’ potential is uncertain. Love, Packers’ leader post-Rodgers, offers potential with quality weapons. Tannehill’s Titans run-heavy focus hampers fantasy value, despite Hopkins’ addition. Jones, Patriots’ starter, lacks 2022 spark. Young faces Carolina challenges. Stroud, Texans rookie, has upside but a bad team hampers his debut. Howell, Commanders’ starter, offers intrigue, suitable for Superflex. Murray’s Cardinals stint is uncertain due to injury. Mayfield’s fate is unclear. Ridder, Falcons’ starter, faces limited volume in a run-heavy system.
